Axioms of Probability and Immediate Consequences

The set-up for probability should be undertaken with examples, such as presented in the preceding section, in mind.

Axioms

A probability space is a set   S   (the elements of   S   will be called outcomes) with a collection   C   of subsets of   S .  
The set   S   itself needs to be in   C .   For each subset   AS   in   C , we also have   SAC .   The elements of   C   are called events.   To each event is assigned a number between   0   and   1   (inclusive).   This means that we have a function   P:C[0,1] .   This function needs to satisfy several properties:

  1. P(S)=1
  2. If   A1 , A2 , … , is a countable
    collection of mutually disjoint elements of   C   (that is if   ij   then   AiAj= ) then   P(A1A2)=P(A1)+P(A2)+ .   This has the consequence that   P(A)=1P(SA) , and thus that   P()=0 .

Here is how we can interpret our introductory examples
through these rules.

Example 1: Our first example may have as the underlying experiment the flip of a quarter.   The collection of possible outcomes is   S={H,T} , and we take as the collection of events   C={,{H},{T},{H,T}} .   Thus the event corresponding to the coin landing with Washington’s profile showing is   {H} .   The event corresponding to the coin landing flat is   {H,T} .   And the event corresponding to the coin landing on edge is   .   For a fair coin, the events of   C   are assigned probabilities as follows.
P()=0P({H})=.5P({T})=.5P({H,T})=1
We often will simplify this notation as below.
P()=0P(H)=.5P(T)=.5P(S)=1

Example 2: Our second example may have as the underlying experiment the roll of a standard die.   The collection of possible outcomes is   S={1,2,3,4,5,6} , and we take as the collection of events (with sixty-four elements)
C={,{1},{2},{3},{4},{5},{6},{1,2},{1,3},{1,4},{1,5},{1,6},{2,3},{2,4},{2,5},{2,6},{3,4},{3,5},{3,6},{4,5},{4,6},{5,6},{1,2,3},{1,2,4},{1,2,5},{1,2,6},{1,3,4},{1,3,5},{1,3,6},{1,4,5},{1,4,6},{1,5,6},{2,3,4},{2,3,5},{2,3,6},{2,4,5},{2,4,6},{2,5,6},{3,4,5},{3,4,6},{3,5,6},{4,5,6},{1,2,3,4},{1,2,3,5},{1,2,3,6},{1,2,4,5},{1,2,4,6},{1,2,5,6},{1,3,4,5},{1,3,4,6},{1,3,5,6},{1,4,5,6},{2,3,4,5},{2,3,4,6},{2,3,5,6},{2,4,5,6},{3,4,5,6},{1,2,3,4,5},{1,2,3,4,6},{1,2,3,5,6},{1,2,4,5,6},{1,3,4,5,6},{2,3,4,5,6},{1,2,3,4,5,6}}.
Thus the event corresponding to the die landing with an even number showing is   {2,4,6} , and so on.   For a fair die, the events   {1} , {2} , {3} , {4} , {5} , and   {6}   of   C   are considered equally likely and assigned probabilities
P(1)=P(2)=P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=P(6)=16.
(We have used the notational shortcut mentioned above.)   From these, we can use the rules to determine the probability of any event in   C .   For example, the probability of getting an even number on a roll of a fair die is
P({2,4,6})=P({2}{4}{6})=P(2 or 4 or 6)=P(2)+P(4)+P(6)=16+16+16=12.
And the probability of getting an odd number on a roll is
P(1 or 3 or 5)=P({1,3,5})=P(S{2,4,6})=112=12.

It should be clear here that even for relatively simply experiments (like, enumerating the possible events can be onerous.   It behooves us to develop a better way to count the number of outcomes and so determine probabilities.

Example 3: Our third example has a continuum of possible outcomes   –   all positive real numbers.   It would be impossible to try to list all possible outcomes, so we settle for a description like   S=R+ .   It would be even more impossible to list all possible events (subsets of   R+ ).   It is also not at all clear how we might assign probabilities to events, although this may be important for various reasons.   In a future section we will see how one might go about determining the probabilities of events in such a case.