The set-up for probability should be undertaken with examples, such as presented in the preceding section, in mind.
Axioms
A probability space is a set
The set
- If
, , … , is a countable
collection of mutually disjoint elements of (that is if then ) then . This has the consequence that , and thus that .
Here is how we can interpret our introductory examples
through these rules.
Example 1: Our first example may have as the underlying experiment the flip of a quarter. The collection of possible outcomes is
We often will simplify this notation as below.
Example 2: Our second example may have as the underlying experiment the roll of a standard die. The collection of possible outcomes is
Thus the event corresponding to the die landing with an even number showing is
(We have used the notational shortcut mentioned above.) From these, we can use the rules to determine the probability of any event in
And the probability of getting an odd number on a roll is
It should be clear here that even for relatively simply experiments (like, enumerating the possible events can be onerous. It behooves us to develop a better way to count the number of outcomes and so determine probabilities.
Example 3: Our third example has a continuum of possible outcomes – all positive real numbers. It would be impossible to try to list all possible outcomes, so we settle for a description like